micke-midlife on April 27th, 2009

berlin_scenarios.gif click to enlarge

… aim for the unreachable, get as close as you can. The definition of art by Markus Lüpertz, the director of the Kunstakademie (art academy) Düsseldorf is the motto of 400days.

After the race in Rotterdam, the view gradually shifts towards the fall and the main marathon in Berlin. The question has come up whether or not it’s still possible to reach the goal of sub 2:30h by the second half of September. Well, without ambitious goals, you don’t get anywhere. 20 mins are of course quite a chunk. This needs to be broken down in order to be able to digest it.

First, one problem in Rotterdam was getting tired quite early in the race. km times started to deteriorate after 20km already. Most probably due to the fact that building up a marathon stamina for a 3:45min/km pace wasn’t possible to do within 8 months of training. By the time Berlin is on, it’s gonna be 13months of training with a bike tour that trains exactly the endurance part (1500km in 6 days). So, the point of deteriorating km times should definitely shift. If it does by 12km, i.e. kicks in at around 32km, this would improve the end result by over 9 minutes. If it remains at an 8km improvement, it would provide almost 7 minutes of improvement.

The second area of major progress over Rotterdam is going from beginning at a faster pace. Instead of a 3:45min/km, a 3:33min to 3:38min/km provides a three and a half to six and a half minute improvement in the end result.

Fewer kilos to carry around only have a very small potential, since they’d play out their benefits only in the end, by limiting the km time deterioration, estimated to be just around 30 seconds in the best case.

Finally of course the crowds, the music and fewer ups and downs on the course. Berlin is fast also due to its course and audience. That should give a boost of adrenalin, at best leading to an improvement of over a minute.

All in all, there’s the chance to get damn close to the goal. With a little bit of artistic insparation (and a hell lot of perspiration) what so ever becomes possible! :-)

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