micke-midlife on November 3rd, 2008

day 72 of course you would like to know your potential marathon time before actually running one. that’s what all those marathon time predictors on the internet are there for. they are quite handy, you enter a time you run over a shorter distance and get your marathon time prediction. the longer the distance you enter, the more the results make sense. the 10k result from yesterdays kuivannon kymppi is the first one on a longer distance. up to now yasso 800s were the base for the first couple of marathon time estimations.

yesterday’s 10k race result was 37:30min, the total distance was 10.6km and the total time 39:26min. this 10k time was fed into calculations on the following sites:


the washington running club race time prediction utility

riegel formula  and  cameron formula plus age-grading predictor

the latter provides three results. one using each formula and one using the so called age-grading predictor. the age-grading takes your age group into account, more details on the web site.

the predicted results were all quite close to each other, between 2:51 and 2:55, the average at 2:53:30. see the graph on the progress page. one question that comes up is of course, how much individual are the actual results versus such predictions that based on general formulas? no idea.

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